Business Management

A final word about the CNT disruption

In order to assess the ability to respond to the disruption of CNT technology, I have prepared a box score for vulnerability to potential disruptive threat assessment below. The resulting conclusion is that costs are the biggest factor affecting the semiconductor industries ability to react. As mentioned in question 1, the high costs associated with R&D and manufacturing in the semiconductor industry means that current facilities need to be planned well ahead of time. Uncertainty, risk, and complexity also make semiconductor road mapping tricky business. Box Score for vulnerability to disruptive technology threat – Semiconductor Manufacturing Firms Denial – 0 History – 0 Resistance to Change – 0 Mind Set – 0 Brand – 0 Sunk Costs – 10 Profitability – 10 Lack of Imagination – 0 The factors I will discuss therefore are: (1) costs and (2) uncertainty. Sunk costs problem implies that firms will not want to migrate…

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Data Analysis in R – Setting Loan Interest Rates

The following chart is the result of a data analysis of loan data for 2500 peer lending loans. The caption at the bottom explains the analysis results. This analysis was performed for the course: Data Analysis from Johns Hopkins University offered through Coursera. So far, it is a great experience. Figure Caption: All of the non-FICO factors that had significant ANOVA p-values are included in the stand-alone figure. Those factors are: (1) loan length, (2) amount requested, (3) amount funded, (4) debt to income ratio, (5) loan purpose, and (6) home ownership. In all charts, interest rate is shown on the Y-axis. Charts 1-3 depict factors confirmed to have significant impact on interest rates using a Tukey-HSD test, while figure 4-6 show factors that had significant ANOVA p-value, but were then determined to have an insignificant impact on interest rate. The overall correlation between FICO score level and interest rate…

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More about the CNT Disruption

The industry I have chosen to investigate, and claim will be a big disruption in the future – although it isn’t poised for market yet – is the carbon nanotube (CNT) processor. Carbon nano technology was highlighted as a disruptive technology in a May 2013 report from McKinsey Quarterly (Manyika, 2013). The reason I believe it will be disruptive is because carbon nano processors have the potential to be much more energy efficient and compact (per processing capacity) than silicon based transistors. The infamous Moore’s Law has accurately predicted the improvements of silicon based semiconductor technology since it was stated by Moore in 1965 (Moore, 1965). While 9nm silicon chips are manufactured today, the the inherent quantum limitations posed by silicon-based semiconductor technology threaten to cause the development pace to drop below Moore’s expected level of improvement by 2020 at the 7nm scale (Merritt, 2013). On the other hand, a…

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In order to ‘catch the wave’ of CNT technology, firms in the semiconductor industry will need to morph their business model to accommodate competition and new opportunities. The reason that I say “morph” the business model, instead of radically change it, is because the shift to CNT from silicon is not here yet, it is a long process forthcoming, and the shift will entail many years of extensive forecasting and planning. The stakes are high for semiconductor developers and manufacturers, so a careful balance between maintaining strong revenue streams, and investing it into R&D is more realistic strategy than a ‘flip the switch’ type of strategy. Although it is less likely that a new player will suddenly emerge onto the field and eat lunches (like Netflix is doing in online media) because of the high barrier to entry, patent activity should be carefully monitored and assessed to judge the relative…

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Why Netflix has kicked ass

I propose three main reasons for Netflix rapid growth: (1) broad device and software architecture support, (2) contracts with top content producers, and (3) optimal timing with respect to scaling, product deployment and technology road mapping. I will outline the ways these three factors have contributed to Netflix growth below. 1. Broad device and software architecture support Netlflix supports a huge range of devices and operating systems. The astounding list includes: Windows and OSX, , ChromeOS, iOS, Android, and Windows Phone, Amazon Kindle, and Nook, which pretty much rounds out the entire PC, notebook, smartphone, and tablet markets. Netflix was also able to secure streaming capabilities in a wide array of Blue-ray players, and smart TV’s and set-top-boxes. Once you include XBox, Playstation, Nintendo Wii, 3D, WiiU, TiVO and Boxee, it’s hard to find a digital device that doesn’t support Netflix. Forbes reports that Playstation is the most used device…

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What are the big TV networks scared of most?

Major TV networks in several cases have been acquired by or merged with cable providers. Their business model is heavily integrated with cable and internet service. With respect to internet technology, their biggest fear may be the realization of a technology race coined “The Last Mile” (Cordeiro, 2003). The goal of ‘the last mile’ is for telecoms to deliver broadband wireless internet to homes. Intel had plans to help make that happen with WiMax but luckily for ISP’s have come up short so far. If telecoms were to successfully develop a superior last mile solution, consumers may switch from Comcast or AOL cable internet to Verizon or AT&T. So, wireless broadband is a potentially disruptive technology for cable service providers (Goodwins, 2005; The Economist 2002). With respect to online video content being a disruptive technology, TV networks biggest fear may that global broadband penetration, significant improvements in broadband speeds and…

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Regression Analysis of Software-Litigation vs Patenting Activity

Here are the results of a regression comparison of all software litigation and all software patenting activity since 2000. The results show correlation which could be described as somewhere between moderate and strong. The resulting Peason’s R value for this study is 0.5193. The purpose of doing this regression study is to prove some correlation between litigation and R&D expenditure. Patent grants issued are not a direct measure of R&D expenditure, because patents costs different amounts to produce in different industries. However, these are all software-related classes, and so correlation between grants issued and R&D expenditure should be stronger than when measuring all UPC classes for the whole USPTO. PastedGraphic-1.pdf

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Here are two charts to show the proportion of software patent grants of all patent grants issued by year since 2008, and software patent grants share of all litigation since 2008. Both are increasing at a steady rate. These facts correspond with the importance of software in corporate strategy in the past decade. Software has also dominated M&A deals in terms of value and volume. Figure 1: Patent Grants from software-related UPC subclasses as a share of all patent grants issued (2008-2012) Figure 2: Patent Grants from software-related UPC subclasses as a share of all patent litigation (2008-2012)

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