The uncertainty in the dragons den of software patents may be driving many countries away from competing for patents. This is perhaps bad news for the US and further evidence that software patents restrict innovation. Considering that only 12.9% of software patents hold up upon litigation ( The study was carried out by John R. Allison, Mark A. Lemley & Joshua Walker for McCombs Graduate School of Business, University of Texas at Austin). The data are actually quite staggering. The chart above shows that the US holds approximately 55% of all USPTO patents in existence. On the other hand, The US holds almost 70% of all software patents in the US and even more staggeringly 85% of all business and commercial software patents.
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Is using Technological Cycle Time (TCT) an acceptable way to evaluate the vitality of an industry? If a firm was looking into expanding their core R&D competencies would an industry with a faster growth rate attract them? Rapid growth in an industry is like a forrest full of deer. Easy hunting and big rewards. On the other hand, stagnation can occur within a sector when serious technological hurdles start to slow the pace of development. In that situation, technological breakthroughs are needed in order to pave the way for continued growth (Kayal, 1999). According to Kayal’s theories and observations regarding technological progress in the superconductor and semiconductor fields, looking at the TCT for an industrial sector can give you an idea about the pace of technological development taking place. TCT of several IPCs is shown (thin colored lines) below. The overall range is generally between 5-8. All the IPC’s closely…
As autonomous vehicles get closer to a market reality, the patent engines will be firing up. What type of patenting activity can we see so far? Searching the USPTO abstracts for combinations of “autonomous”, “self- driving”, “car”, and “vehicle” I found a total of 271 patents. After organizing these patents into groups of their IPC class, I investigated each IPC class to determine if it is emerging or declining technology. Since vehicles such as submarines and airplanes have had autopilot functions since the 80’s there are some IPC classes such as “2D position controls” and “Steering Controls” that are already in decline. In order to find which IPC’s are emerging and which ones are in decline, I charted their growth of each IPC against it’s average over the 34 year period from 1976-2010. This is just a sample of the IPCs that I have investigated, however, it shows that some…
Finding Cooperative partners is a growing trend in business. The benefits of collaboration are increasingly becoming an important part of enhancing a firms capabilities and cost cutting. Analyzing a firm’s patent portfolio can enable a firm to find potential collaborative partners in order to achieve these ends. Joint venture, licensing can then become part of a firms R&D strategy. Even competitors can become valuable cooperative partners. This presentation from my MBA course looks at the reasons for collaborating and compares two firms in the LED industry in Taiwan. Their portfolio analysis demonstrates how they evolved from competitors to cooperators. LINK TO THE PDF: https://dl.dropbox.com/u/45852891/Joseph%20Lee%20-%20Coopetition.pdf
Technology Cycle Time (TCT) is an accepted way to evaluate the pace of technological development although it requires some special considerations. A good analogy is how a chainsaw is a good way to cut down a tree, but it also presents many risks, including the inherent risk of felling a large object. Error of judgement, calculation or interpretation could be fatal. Here is some stark evidence that TCT calculations are a reliable indicator of the current technological environment. The speed of technological development is slowing in recent years. Is this only due to the economic situation? Unlikely. TCT in the USPTO shows that the slowing technological development preceded the economic crisis of 2007. Although overall patenting is increasing dramatically, the rate that the technology is replacing itself is actually slowing. Some evidence of this can be seen when you look at the average processor speed in PC’s and notebooks. Although…
