Is using Technological Cycle Time (TCT) an acceptable way to evaluate the vitality of an industry? If a firm was looking into expanding their core R&D competencies would an industry with a faster growth rate attract them? Rapid growth in an industry is like a forrest full of deer. Easy hunting and big rewards. On the other hand, stagnation can occur within a sector when serious technological hurdles start to slow the pace of development. In that situation, technological breakthroughs are needed in order to pave the way for continued growth (Kayal, 1999). According to Kayal’s theories and observations regarding technological progress in the superconductor and semiconductor fields, looking at the TCT for an industrial sector can give you an idea about the pace of technological development taking place. TCT of several IPCs is shown (thin colored lines) below. The overall range is generally between 5-8. All the IPC’s closely…
IPC
As autonomous vehicles get closer to a market reality, the patent engines will be firing up. What type of patenting activity can we see so far? Searching the USPTO abstracts for combinations of “autonomous”, “self- driving”, “car”, and “vehicle” I found a total of 271 patents. After organizing these patents into groups of their IPC class, I investigated each IPC class to determine if it is emerging or declining technology. Since vehicles such as submarines and airplanes have had autopilot functions since the 80’s there are some IPC classes such as “2D position controls” and “Steering Controls” that are already in decline. In order to find which IPC’s are emerging and which ones are in decline, I charted their growth of each IPC against it’s average over the 34 year period from 1976-2010. This is just a sample of the IPCs that I have investigated, however, it shows that some…
IPC, UPC, ECLA, F-index/F-term are all systems of patent classification. Patent classification is important to organize the granted patents into categories so patent portfolio managers and strategic firm managers can search them as prior art, and for strategic purposes. Concordance tables can help to compare one system to another. In all cases, class is determined by the patent examiner, not chosen by the company. IPC (International Patent Classification System) – 70,000 divisions of the IPC, which is the native patent classification system of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO). IPC’s most general classification system consists of a letter (having 8 general classes in total), with A being human necessities. G & H are the most important and numerous high-tech general classifications for physics and electricity respectively. UPC (USPC) (United States Patent Classification System) – The UPC is separate and not directly linked to the syntax of the IPC. …
This paper is written by my professor at the NCHU and I have prepared a PPT presentation and literature review. This paper was published in the journal Nature Biology which is the number one top ranked journal in the category of biology. This paper outlines a proposed method for calculating value of patents in the pharmaceutical industry. The method uses a stochastic Monte-Carlo simulation strategy to account for the uncertainty of life-cycle phase particular to the pharmaceutical industry. In reality, experts are needed to adjust the three main variables of reversion rate, volatility, and drift rate according to the specific conditions of the patent in question. This model of valuation could be useful in patent licensing and sales negotiations. If you have any further questions, please email me: joseph.lee.esl@gmail.com LINK TO THE PPT: https://dl.dropbox.com/u/45852891/Project%20Analysis%20-%20FINAL.pdf
